Archive for July, 2009

EUR/USD Down on Durable Goods Orders News

Friday, July 31st, 2009

Euro continued to fall for a second day against the U.S. dollar today as the durable goods orders in U.S. unexpectedly fell at a very fast pace. This is the second day in a row with the bad macroeconomic statistics from United States. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4099.

Durable goods orders declined by 2.5% in June, following 1.3% growth in May. The market analysts expected a decline from this report but only by 0.6%. Durable goods orders rate is a good indicator of the overall conditions of the U.S. industrial production sector.

Crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, and increased by a rather large amount — 5.1 million barrels compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels. So, the gain in the oil inventories looks like a result of poor production capacity utilization.
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EUR/USD Slumps on Worsening Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

EUR/USD is currently posting a biggest daily drop since July 10th as the consumer confidence report for July along with the housing data for May cut the traders’ hopes for the fast economical recovery and boosted the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4173.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index for 20 U.S. states was at a seasonally adjusted level of 140.05 in May — that’s a 17.05% drop compared to a year before. A decline by 17.90% was expected following an 18.10% drop in April.

Consumer confidence decreased from 49.3 in June to 46.6 in July in United States. It was a rather unexpected drop (forecasts pointed at a decline only to 49.0).

On the good side, yesterday, a report on the June’s new home sales showed a growth from 346k to 384k annualized seasonally adjusted rate. That report surpassed the optimistic forecast of gain to 355k rate.
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GBP/USD Chart Patter — July 26th 2009

Monday, July 27th, 2009

This time I once again show only one Forex chart pattern that I’ve detected during the last trading week. It’s GBP/USD ascending triangle with a small downward slope. This is a bullish continuation figure and I recommend expecting an upward breakout, which can happen in a week or two. Click on the image to get the full-size chart screenshot:

GBP/USD, Daily Timeframe Chart, Ascending Triangle
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Technical vs Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading

Monday, July 27th, 2009

As a beginner in forex trading you might wonder which analysis suits you best – technical or fundamental. Is it better to concentrate on one of them, or rather combine the two for better understanding? What do other traders use to analyze price movements?
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Forex Technical Analysis for 07/27—07/31 Week

Saturday, July 25th, 2009

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.3927 1.4018 1.4109 1.4200 1.4291 1.4382 1.4473
GBP/USD 1.6013 1.6161 1.6289 1.6437 1.6565 1.6713 1.6841
USD/JPY 91.28 92.18 93.48 94.38 95.69 96.59 97.89
EUR/JPY 129.06 130.57 132.59 134.10 136.12 137.63 139.65
Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4018 1.4110 1.4200 1.4292 1.4382
GBP/USD 1.6156 1.6279 1.6432 1.6555 1.6708
USD/JPY 92.28 93.68 94.48 95.89 96.69
EUR/JPY 130.70 132.84 134.23 136.37 137.76
Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4101 1.4151 1.4167 1.4184 1.4217 1.4234 1.4251 1.4301
GBP/USD 1.6265 1.6341 1.6366 1.6392 1.6442 1.6467 1.6493 1.6569
USD/JPY 93.57 94.18 94.38 94.58 94.99 95.19 95.39 96.00
EUR/JPY 132.67 133.64 133.96 134.29 134.93 135.26 135.58 136.55
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4291 1.6585 95.29 135.61
61.8% 1.4221 1.6480 94.44 134.26
50.0% 1.4200 1.6447 94.18 133.84
38.2% 1.4178 1.6414 93.92 133.43
23.6% 1.4152 1.6374 93.60 132.91
0.0% 1.4109 1.6309 93.08 132.08

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Money Management and Risk Management

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

A new trading e-book has been uploaded to my site today. It’s Money Management and Risk Management by Ryan Jones. As the title of this book goes, it’s about money management — one of the most important parts of Forex trading (and not only Forex, but any other financial trading that involves risk and probability). The author wisely divides the money management into two kinds — the proper and improper money management. Where the first type refers to the one that always keeps in mind both the risk and reward parts of each trading action, while the improper tries to amplify the importance of only one of those to vital parts. Unfortunately, the majority of traders, especially newbie traders, that see the possibilities opened by the on-line Forex market and its huge leverage, fail to see the full picture and all the more so they can’t apply the proper money management to their trading strategy. But now you can download this book to learn more about the proper money management:

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Will EUR/USD Reach 1.5000 Before September?

Tuesday, July 21st, 2009

Looking at the weekly chart of the EUR/USD currency pair it’s easy to say that it’s currently trading in some kind of a long term triangle pattern with the narrowing boundaries. Although, the upper boundary offers a strong resistance far below 1.5000 level, there is a high probability of the bullish breakout. Fundamental analysts talk about the inevitable dollar’s weakness that will come soon as the global economy starts to recover from the crisis. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar still remains a global reserve currency, while the euro still haven’t managed to gain the proper reputation, which suggest a bearish breakout in EUR/USD. And what do you think about it?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post’s poll.
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Forex Chart Pattern — AUD/USD

Sunday, July 19th, 2009

Last week I’ve posted a pattern spotted on AUD/USD chart that seemed to be a descending triangle. It turned out to be false (with several features pointing on that fact even 7 days ago) and the whole pattern has now transformed into a falling wedge with a very gradual narrowing, which suggests possibility for another pattern transformation. But nevertheless you can already start looking for a breakout to have good entry opportunity. Click the image to get the larger screenshot.

AUD/USD, Daily, Falling Wedge:

AUD/USD, Daily, 2009-07-19
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What Really Drives Forex Market?

Sunday, July 19th, 2009

With the experience in forex trading comes a rather disappointing realization that forex is difficult. You have read the basics, you have learned the indicators and charts, and you even found the right broker and opened a demo account. You’ve got the tools, the tricks and a “winning” strategy. If everything is in order, how come you are still not on the way to forex riches? Where are the promised piles of money?!
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Interview with FxCompany

Friday, July 17th, 2009

I’ve been contacted by a representative of FxCompany that asked me if I can do an on-line interview with him. So, I decided that the readers of my blog would probably be interested to hear what one of the popular MetaTrader broker can say about its business and the overall market situation. I’ve sent the questions to Mr. Andrew Mecow, the Head of Partners Department, and soon received his answers. And now you can read the whole interview and see if FxCompany, as a broker, can be interesting to you.

To me, on-line Forex broker market looks very close to oversaturated. Understanding that FxCompany is quite a new on-line broker, what keeps up you in the market? What’s your main attractor for your customers?

Well, first of all, I would like to thank you, Andrei, for letting me bring my point of view to the community. Now closer to the questions. Online retail Forex Market, indeed, is quite full now, but changes are on their way. I am sure the era of unregulated «gray» brokers is close to its end. And in the next several years we will see that only licensed and regulated brokers will be the ones who rule. Regulation will not be an advantage, it will be a standard.
So I could start enumerating our advantages, but they are available on our website at http://www.fxcompany.net. The essential advantage, to my mind, is license and regulation. The policies we adopt and the obligations we take on when we enter the market and our effort for transparent activities and transactions. That’s the point, I think.

As far as I know, FxComapny was initially registered as a Russian company, why did you move to Mauritius? Is it somehow connected with your international expansion?

Yes, it is, of course, connected with our international expansion. We have registered a new LLC, we have obtained a FSC license and heading for the CySEC license, and therefore we went abroad.

How did FxCompany start? What has lead to a creation of the Forex broker that we can see now?

Back in 2004 FxCompany was incorporated with the aim of providing top-class brokerage services. This is quite a usual story for a private or an institutional investor to be dissatisfied with the services offered on the market and to start a new enterprise. This is how a lot of brokers out there apperared, as far as I know.

You offer both a stand-alone MetaTrader 4 trading platform, but why don’t you offer some web-based platform that can be ran in a trader’s browser? Wouldn’t it be a very convenient solution for many traders?

Well, I am not the supporter of web platforms. Traders deal with risks, money, sometimes very short operations. And there are a lot of places in the world with either a too expensive or too unstable (or both) internet access. So, in my opinion, a web platform is connected with even higher risks, than usual. While our policy is to minimize risks. Different browsers, different protocols, a huge number of hidden catches which can influence the trading process. In my opinion it just isn’t worth it. There is a certain difference between editing a table in Google Docs and Forex/Stock Market trading, if you know what I mean.

Do you plan any new exciting features added to FxCompany? Or do you think that as a broker you can’t be improved any further?

Well, pity the broker who thinks «it can’t be improved any further». This is the moment when the broker dies. Our plans are wide and we work all the time to improve our performance. In the nearest future we will issue free Visa debit cards for our customers, we will enable a full range of mobile and SMS services, we will certainly widen the range or trading tools, we are working on both Personal and Partner Offices (backend areas) to make them easier and more convenient, we will provide video tutorials and market analytics. Like I always say, stay tuned, there’s going to be a lot more of fun.

Broker regulation question looks more and more important inside the traders’ community. What can you say about how FxCompany is regulated? Do you plan registering with NFA or CFTC?

Yes, that’s what I was talking about in the very beginning. It will soon be a standard. Right now we are licensed and regulated by the FSC Mauritius. The Financial Services Commission which enables us to apply a certain number of policies (Anti-Money Laundering, Know Your Customer, etc) and obliges us to be audited each year to confirm our license. Right now we are applying for CySEC license, and later on we will apply for NFA. It all takes time and effort (which is right, every licensed company must be thoroughly audited before obtaining a license), but we are doing our best and we will succeed.

You offer a lot of futures, commodities and CFD products to trade on. Are they popular among Forex traders? Or do you have to promote them somehow among the customers.

In fact, yes. They are somewhat different from the usual Forex currency pairs but they gained their popularity. So we do not have to promote them. As a broker we should provide the widest possible choice of the trading tools and then it’s up to the customers to decide. And, certainly, we can’t (nor do we want to actually) influence their choice. Of course major currency pairs are the most popular, but trust me, CFDs have reserved their spot as well.

FxCompany offers a lot of various methods to deposit and withdraw funds, including WebMoney, Moneybookers and Liberty Reserve. Do you plan adding any new methods or drop existing ones soon?

Yes, sure there will be more of them. Debit and credit cards processing, Alertpay, PerfectMoney. We are always open for any suggestions. As long as an e-currency is stable (we all remember E-Gold) we are fine working with it. What is more attractive — is the local currency and local bank deposit, so that people don’t have to pay for wire transfers and currency exchange. We already offer local deposits in Mumbai, India, and we plan to have them soon in the majority of countries that we are targeted to, like Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan. I hope our customers will be pleased with that.

Didn’t you think about offering lower minimum account size or micro-lot trading opportunity to attract more customers? Isn’t $100 too much for a first deposit in the current conditions?

In my opinion, such conditions are relevant to the market. We all know a lot of «1 USD deposit-2 pips spread-0.001 lot-whatever else-forex» companies out there, offering these lucrative conditions just to gain a fast profit. Whenever a person starts trading there, he/she sees the other side, like spikes, off-quotes: and so on, this story remains the same for over 10 years. So we do not compete to offer the «cheapest» services, we strive for providing the best services on the market. We are not chasing after the instant profit, we will stay here for long.

MetaTrader 5 platform is going to be released this fall. Are you ready to offer this new version of the trading platform to your traders?

Yes, we are. Funny, I can’t even say who is waiting for MT5 more, traders or brokers. We are waiting for the release, and as soon as it happens — we will offer it as an option for our customers.

And the final question that I’ve asked to every Forex broker representative, which I have interviewed — is Forex trading a gambling? And what sets it apart from gambling if you think that it’s something different?

A very interesting question, thank you. It is a matter of an attitude, I think. Forex was never intended for playing. It was invented for trading, a full-time work actually. But there are a lot of people considering it to be a kind of an online game, a gambling, allowing to get some fast money. Such people risk their funds and eventually they always lose their deposits. While serious studies of analysis (ever seen those huge Tech Analysis books?), money management, trading techniques, etc turn trading into serious work. And this is where the games end.

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