Archive for August, 2009

Forex Technical Analysis for 08/31—09/04 Week

Sunday, August 30th, 2009

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4004 1.4105 1.4203 1.4305 1.4403 1.4504 1.4603
GBP/USD 1.5706 1.5929 1.6098 1.6321 1.6489 1.6712 1.6880
USD/JPY 91.00 92.10 92.84 93.95 94.68 95.79 96.53
EUR/JPY 129.32 131.12 132.48 134.28 135.64 137.44 138.80
Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4104 1.4202 1.4304 1.4402 1.4504
GBP/USD 1.5916 1.6070 1.6307 1.6462 1.6698
USD/JPY 92.01 92.65 93.85 94.50 95.70
EUR/JPY 131.01 132.26 134.17 135.42 137.33
Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4192 1.4247 1.4265 1.4284 1.4320 1.4339 1.4357 1.4412
GBP/USD 1.6051 1.6158 1.6194 1.6230 1.6302 1.6338 1.6374 1.6481
USD/JPY 92.56 93.07 93.24 93.41 93.74 93.91 94.08 94.59
EUR/JPY 132.11 132.98 133.26 133.55 134.13 134.42 134.71 135.58
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4406 1.6544 95.06 136.07
61.8% 1.4329 1.6394 94.35 134.87
50.0% 1.4306 1.6348 94.13 134.49
38.2% 1.4282 1.6302 93.92 134.12
23.6% 1.4253 1.6245 93.65 133.66
0.0% 1.4206 1.6152 93.21 132.92

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GDP Revision Doesn’t Happen — EUR/USD Gains

Friday, August 28th, 2009

EUR/USD reacted with a small drop immediately after the GDP release today but then retraced and is now trading with a considerable daily gain. The Q2 2009 GDP change value was expected to be negatively revised today but since the revision didn’t happen, traders react on a positive signal for the U.S. (and global) economy. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.4269.

U.S. real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.0% in the second quarter of 2009 according the latest estimate report. Previous estimate report also showed a -1.0% change. Traders expected a revision of the estimate to a drop by 1.5%. The GDP fell by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009.

Initial jobless claims declined to 570k last week, down from 580k a week before (revised from 576k). A decline to 565k was expected from this report.
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Consumer Confidence Above 50 Boosts EUR/USD Up

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

The dollar is currently losing against the euro on the Forex arena after falling slightly yesterday. The European currency gains from the improved outlook for the global economy on positive consumer confidence and home price index in U.S. EUR/USD currency pair is now trading near 1.4324.

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for 20 U.S. states reached a seasonally adjusted rate of 141.31 in June — that’s a 15.45% drop compared to June 2008 but at the same time it’s the first gain in the index in more than two years. This indicator was expected to be reported at -16.4% year-to-year change.

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index for August was reported at the same unchanged level as in July — 14, while it was expected to grow up to 16.

Consumer confidence went up from 47.4 in July to 54.1 in August, signaling generally positive expectations of the consumers in the United States. A decline to 45 was forecasted by the economic analysts.
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How Long Have You Been Trading Forex?

Monday, August 24th, 2009

I had begun to trade Forex back in August 2005 when I first heard about the company (Marketiva) that offers free $5 bonus to start trading Forex with them. It was interesting for me to try and at that time free $5 sounded like a lot to me, so I’ve opened an account. Since then I’ve been losing and wining and I have also changed my broker a lot of times but Forex trading has been a great part of my life since my first opened position. I believe that experience is one of the greatest teachers in Forex and that new traders rarely can start to win consistently without years of real on-line trading. So, in this new poll I’d like to know how long have you been in Forex.

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How to Choose Forex Broker

Monday, August 24th, 2009

A Forex broker is a necessary ingredient in forex trading. Forex brokers take care of the orders, perform the transactions, offer trading platforms and all the necessary trading tools, such as charts, real time news, fundamental and technical updates, economic calendars and more.  Therefore, it is important for a beginner in forex to spend enough time figuring out which forex broker is most suitable. What defines a good broker? How do you know which broker suits you best?
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Forex Technical Analysis for 08/24—08/28 Week

Saturday, August 22nd, 2009

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.3792 1.3919 1.4122 1.4248 1.4451 1.4578 1.4781
GBP/USD 1.5964 1.6119 1.6313 1.6468 1.6662 1.6817 1.7011
USD/JPY 91.58 92.50 93.44 94.36 95.30 96.22 97.16
EUR/JPY 129.82 131.00 133.09 134.27 136.37 137.55 139.65
Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.3938 1.4160 1.4267 1.4490 1.4597
GBP/USD 1.6129 1.6333 1.6478 1.6681 1.6827
USD/JPY 92.50 93.45 94.36 95.31 96.22
EUR/JPY 131.23 133.55 134.50 136.83 137.78
Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4143 1.4234 1.4264 1.4294 1.4355 1.4385 1.4415 1.4506
GBP/USD 1.6315 1.6411 1.6443 1.6475 1.6539 1.6571 1.6603 1.6699
USD/JPY 93.35 93.87 94.04 94.21 94.55 94.72 94.89 95.40
EUR/JPY 133.39 134.29 134.59 134.89 135.49 135.79 136.09 136.99
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4375 1.6623 95.28 135.45
61.8% 1.4249 1.6490 94.57 134.20
50.0% 1.4210 1.6449 94.35 133.81
38.2% 1.4171 1.6407 94.13 133.43
23.6% 1.4123 1.6357 93.86 132.95
0.0% 1.4045 1.6274 93.42 132.18

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Sharp Rise in EUR/USD as Oil Invenotires Drop

Thursday, August 20th, 2009

EUR/USD posted a big gain today, following a smaller rise shown yesterday, and is now trading just below Friday’s open level. The growth of euro against the U.S. dollar happened despite the poor fundamentals from Europe and other developed economies. United States aren’t very rich on the important Forex-influencing reports today — only crude oil inventories have got their release, but they managed to shake the market fully. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4262.

Crude oil inventories went down by 8.4 million barrels, while the total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, which is definitely going to hurt the USD, considering the higher oil prices.

Yesterday some other fundamental reports from U.S. were released. Among them the PPI change for July, which was -0.9%, following 1.8% gain in June. Forecasts were pointing at -0.3% change for July.

Housing starts and building permits report also came out yesterday. Building permits decreased from 570k to 560k in July, while housing starts declined from 587k to 581k annual rate during the same period. Both number were expected to go up slightly.
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Today Forex Trading Forecast

Thursday, August 20th, 2009

European stocks rising this morning as the ZEW survey along with the US housing forecasts are likely to come out better than the previous month showing that confidence in the eurozones economic sentiment is moving to optimistic rather than pessimistic along with housing starts getting a boost in the states.  Having had such a huge sell off during the US session and a minor increase in the Asian, look for a short term (very) return to risk appetite, however, the consensus is still for a drive lower and the return to dollar and Yen strength.  Stocks and oil remain the key indicators for today’s trading, oil back above $67 per barrel, gold also trading higher at time of writing.
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What Leverage Do You Use?

Tuesday, August 18th, 2009

A high leverage is one of the best things of the modern retail Forex trading and it allows making the thousands of dollars on some cent moves in EUR/USD currency pair, even if you have only $10,000 in your trading account. But on the other hand, that high leverage is the reason of the extremely high losses of the inexperienced Forex traders. The margin leverage is a multiplier that plays for you when you win and plays against you when you lose. With a big enough trading account it’s advised not to use the leverage at all, but the vast majority of Forex traders requires a leverage to make some money and they often seek the broker with a highest leverage possible. Personally, I prefer usual 1:100 leverage, which gives a lot of… you know, “leverage”, and makes the risk/reward calculations quite easy. And how about you?

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Forex Technical Analysis for 08/17—08/21 Week

Sunday, August 16th, 2009

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: buy.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.3842 1.3964 1.4083 1.4205 1.4324 1.4446 1.4565
GBP/USD 1.6054 1.6222 1.6381 1.6549 1.6709 1.6877 1.7037
USD/JPY 90.35 92.38 93.65 95.68 96.95 98.98 100.25
EUR/JPY 128.52 131.29 133.05 135.82 137.57 140.35 142.10
Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.3963 1.4081 1.4204 1.4322 1.4445
GBP/USD 1.6220 1.6377 1.6547 1.6705 1.6875
USD/JPY 92.19 93.27 95.49 96.57 98.79
EUR/JPY 131.04 132.54 135.56 137.06 140.09
Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4069 1.4136 1.4158 1.4180 1.4224 1.4246 1.4268 1.4334
GBP/USD 1.6361 1.6451 1.6481 1.6511 1.6571 1.6601 1.6631 1.6721
USD/JPY 93.10 94.01 94.31 94.62 95.22 95.52 95.83 96.73
EUR/JPY 132.31 133.56 133.97 134.39 135.21 135.63 136.04 137.29
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4327 1.6717 97.72 138.59
61.8% 1.4235 1.6592 96.45 136.86
50.0% 1.4206 1.6554 96.07 136.33
38.2% 1.4178 1.6515 95.68 135.79
23.6% 1.4143 1.6467 95.19 135.13
0.0% 1.4086 1.6390 94.41 134.07

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