Archive for December, 2009

EUR/USD Bullish Despite High U.S. Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

The EUR/USD currency pair rose today as the appeal for the greenback remained rather negative in a high risk fueled session were traders left dollar-priced positions to invest in higher-yielding currencies. Consumer confidence helped the dollar to stop its losing streak versus the euro but came slightly below forecasts, having a mild impact in the currency pair. EUR/USD is falling now after the confidence report was published in the U.S. and is trading at 1.4422.

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index decreased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.3% in October from a previous revised declined of 9.3%. Forecasts suggested a decline of 7.1% for this indicator. In the monthly comparison it rose 145.36 from a previous revised reading of 144.83.

Consumer confidence index rose to 52.9 in December from a previous 49.5 in October, coming near forecasts that suggested this index to stand at 53 in the current month.

If you have any comments on the recent EUR/USD action, please, reply using the form below.

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Russian Broker Kalita-Finance

Monday, December 28th, 2009

The Forex broker that was added to my site today is Kalita-Finance (or KF-Forex) and is based and regulated in Russian Federation. This broker is quite old (by the measure of the other on-line Forex brokers) — it went on-line in 2002. Unfortunately, it doesn’t support a MetaTrader platform but instead offers its own iTrader platform that has a lot of similarities with the MT4 and is quite rich functionally. Other highlights of KF-Forex include:

  • Trade CFD, gold, oil and other commodities.
  • Spreads are quite high — 4 pips on EUR/USD on average.
  • Real estate and gasoline indexes are available for trading.
  • Deposit and withdraw via WebMoney, bank wire and Yandex.Money.
  • Accounts start from $150.

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Forex Technical Analysis for 12/28—01/01 Week

Saturday, December 26th, 2009

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.
GBP/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4040 1.4129 1.4241 1.4329 1.4442 1.4530 1.4643
GBP/USD 1.5616 1.5768 1.5858 1.6010 1.6100 1.6252 1.6342
USD/JPY 88.99 89.61 90.62 91.24 92.25 92.87 93.88
EUR/JPY 127.19 128.19 129.86 130.86 132.53 133.53 135.20
GBP/JPY 143.79 144.62 145.37 146.21 146.96 147.79 148.54
Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4135 1.4253 1.4335 1.4454 1.4536
GBP/USD 1.5752 1.5826 1.5994 1.6068 1.6237
USD/JPY 89.71 90.81 91.34 92.44 92.97
EUR/JPY 128.36 130.19 131.03 132.86 133.70
GBP/JPY 144.60 145.33 146.19 146.91 147.77
Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4243 1.4299 1.4317 1.4335 1.4372 1.4390 1.4409 1.4464
GBP/USD 1.5814 1.5881 1.5903 1.5925 1.5969 1.5991 1.6014 1.6080
USD/JPY 90.73 91.18 91.33 91.48 91.78 91.93 92.07 92.52
EUR/JPY 130.06 130.79 131.04 131.28 131.77 132.02 132.26 132.99
GBP/JPY 145.25 145.69 145.83 145.98 146.27 146.41 146.56 146.99
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
100.0% 1.4417 1.6163 91.86 131.86 147.04
61.8% 1.4341 1.6070 91.24 130.84 146.44
50.0% 1.4317 1.6042 91.05 130.53 146.25
38.2% 1.4293 1.6013 90.86 130.21 146.06
23.6% 1.4264 1.5978 90.62 129.82 145.83
0.0% 1.4217 1.5921 90.24 129.20 145.46

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EUR/USD Up on Negative U.S. Housing Data

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

Finally a change in the EUR/USD currency pair trend was perceived today after a frustrating new home sales report, that came much below forecasts and declining attractiveness for assets in the U.S., after the dollar gained for several straight days versus the euro. After the report, the euro entered an uptrend versus the greenback and currently trades at 1.4335.

Personal income increased 0.4% in November, while personal spending rose slightly more at 0.5%. The actual figures came within estimates range as personal income was expected at 0.4% and spending at 0.6%. In October, income rose 0.3% and spending 0.6% based on revised estimates. Core PCE Inflation was at 0 the last month.

New home sales declined to 335k on its seasonally adjusted annual rate for the month of November, much below forecasts that suggested 442k units sold, and also below the revised value of 400k in October.

U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week. Both remained above the upper limit of the average range.
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Short-Term Pullbacks of the Long-Term Trends — New Strategy

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

The new Forex trading strategy that was added to my site today is the Combined Stochastic Oscillator/MA strategy, which is based on of the Forex videos that I’ve seen recently. The basic principle of this this strategy is rather simple. You have a long-term trend confirmed with the triple moving averages (exponential) and you have a short term overbought/oversold situation, confirmed with the stochastic oscillator. The good about this strategy is that it’s based on the standard indicators that are present in all decent Forex platforms and that the double confirmation makes the trades safer. While the bad about it is that you have to monitor two charts for each currency pair and wait for the long-term trends to enter the rather short-term trades. The strategy can be used with any currency pair on D1 and H1 timeframes.
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Symmetrical Triangles on GBP/JPY D1 — December 20th 2009

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

A somewhat rough symmetrical triangles pattern has formed on the D1 timeframe chart of the GBP/JPY currency pair. Considering the general bearish trend on this timeframe period, the pair has an elevated chance of breaking for a downtrend with a target somewhere close to 137.50. A signal would be a close below the lower border of the triangle with a consecutive bounce off this limit (southwards, of course). The bullish breakout is definitely possible too, but I wouldn’t consider such signal, as there is a strong chance of some really freakish fakeout in a bullish side with this pattern. Look at the pattern below and don’t forget to click the image to get a full-size chart:


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EUR/USD Reaches Record Low on Greece Debt Struggle

Friday, December 18th, 2009

After Greece, an European Union member which adopted the euro since it was introduced, had a downgrade on its credit rating by Standard & Poor’s for the second time this year, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped to the lowest level in three months, as it signaled that not all bloc members are as resilient as Germany, declining attractiveness for the euro in currency markets. Currently EUR/USD is falling at 1.4358.

Initial jobless claims reached 480k last week from a previous revised reading of 473k. Actual figures frustrated forecasts that suggested a drop of claims to 466k.

Philadelphia Fed index improved significantly and reached 20.4 in December, more than forecasts that suggested a value of 16.2 and higher from the previous month were it reached 16.7.

Leading indicators index increased 0.9% in November from a reading of 0.3% in the previous month. The current figures came better than forecasts that suggested an increase of 0.8%.
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EUR/USD Continues to Fall on U.S. Optimism

Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to fall today as optimism towards the U.S. economy and a change in Federal Reserve monetary policy attracted more investors to purchased dollar-priced assets. In Europe, a frustrating economic sentiment report forced the European common currency down versus most of the main traded options in foreign-exchange markets and touched the lowest rate versus the greenback in two months. EUR/USD remains bearish at a current level of 1.4555.

Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.8% in November from a previous advance of 0.3% in October. The actual figures beat forecasts that suggested an increase of 0.8%.

N.Y. Empire State Manufacturing index declined significantly to 2.6 in December from a previous reading of 23.5 in the past month. Forecasts indicated an advance to 24.7 which was not confirmed, but the index reading above 0 still showed a timid improvement.

Net long-term purchases of the U.S. securities by the foreign investors touched $20.7 billion in October, frustrating forecasts that expected a net value of $38.3 billion, and posting a decline from September when it reached $40.7 billion.

Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in the month of November, with an advance of 0.8% for the industrial production which remained neutral at 0.0% in the previous reading (revised) and surpassed forecasts at 0.6%. Capacity utilization rate grew to 71.3% from a revised advance 70.6% in October and near estimates at 71.1%.
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Forex Technical Analysis for 12/14—12/18 Week

Saturday, December 12th, 2009

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.
GBP/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4180 1.4383 1.4498 1.4701 1.4817 1.5020 1.5135
GBP/USD 1.5763 1.5965 1.6112 1.6313 1.6461 1.6662 1.6810
USD/JPY 84.50 85.93 87.52 88.94 90.53 91.96 93.54
EUR/JPY 122.31 125.54 127.88 131.11 133.45 136.69 139.02
GBP/JPY 134.85 138.42 141.65 145.22 148.45 152.03 155.25
Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4361 1.4455 1.4679 1.4773 1.4998
GBP/USD 1.5951 1.6085 1.6300 1.6434 1.6649
USD/JPY 85.97 87.60 88.98 90.61 92.00
EUR/JPY 125.32 127.43 130.89 133.00 136.46
GBP/JPY 138.34 141.48 145.14 148.28 151.94
Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4439 1.4526 1.4555 1.4585 1.4643 1.4672 1.4702 1.4789
GBP/USD 1.6068 1.6164 1.6196 1.6228 1.6292 1.6324 1.6356 1.6451
USD/JPY 87.44 88.27 88.55 88.83 89.38 89.65 89.93 90.76
EUR/JPY 127.15 128.68 129.20 129.71 130.73 131.24 131.75 133.28
GBP/JPY 141.14 143.01 143.63 144.25 145.50 146.12 146.75 148.62
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
100.0% 1.4904 1.6515 90.37 134.35 148.80
61.8% 1.4782 1.6381 89.22 132.22 146.20
50.0% 1.4745 1.6340 88.86 131.56 145.40
38.2% 1.4707 1.6299 88.51 130.90 144.59
23.6% 1.4661 1.6248 88.07 130.09 143.60
0.0% 1.4586 1.6166 87.36 128.77 142.00

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Forex Expert Advisor on Customizable Moving Average Cross

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

Today I’ve finished the tests of both versions of my new MetaTrader expert advisor and uploaded it to the site. It’s called Adjustable MA and is available for MT4 and MT5. It allows a rather deep customization of the moving averages and other parameters of the EA. It’s a rather basic expert advisor that trades on a cross between two moving averages. The interesting part is that you can modify many parameters, making it quite a useful tool for the Forex geeks.

The back-test of this wasn’t very interesting. I’ve optimized it in the MetaTrader strategy tester to find the best parameters, but the back-tests aren’t very reliable for this kind of expert advisors. You can see the balance graph of the 1-year test here (the test was conducted on EUR/USD M5 chart):

Adjustable Moving Average Graph

I also forward-tested this EA for several days and found that it works fine with more logical parameters and with other currency pairs too.

You can also view the complete testing report. Go directly to Adjustable MA expert advisor page to download this EA or get more information about it. If you don’t like Adjustable MA, you can check other MetaTrader expert advisors.
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